| Originally Posted by Wally
2007 Projections:
The Iraq situation will continue to deteriorate; the surge strategy will fail.
The US military will openly be unable to conduct major ground operations other than in Iraq. This will be beyond the ability of the Administration's supporters to conceal or deny. The US may have to make a choice (even by default by the Administration) of which areas of the world it wishes to have influence in (Asia vs Middle East). This will have grave political, military, and economic impacts.
The dollar decline will continue. Open capital flight might occur.
A recession will probably be apparent in mid 2007. It will not (initially) be offically acknowledged for political reasons.
The housing market will continue to decline.
Iran and Saudi Arabia will continue to fight (more openly) by proxy in Iraq.
The Baker/Hamilton Commission marks the end of Silent influence. Increasingly, new political power will flow from late Boomers who did not participate in the Sixties/Vietnam, and from Generation X and it's Millenial allies.
The Bush Administration will continue to attempt to put the withdrawal from Iraq off until the next Administration.
The new Democratic Congress will not attempt to impeach the President.
Exposures of past and current outrages by the Administration and it's allies will be met with increasing acceptance and indifference: "Well, like, you were right and we were wrong. So, yeah, we shit all over you AND ran our mouths the entire time. So, yeah, we are all now screwed. *shrug* Let's move on...". Pardons of powerful persons may be forthcoming; lesser members of the Administration (like outgoing Congressional staffers) and others may not fare as well.
The fizzle of the 2006 hurricane season may lead to a false sense of security. The area from Houston to the Louisiana border is particularly vulnerable to this.
Discretionary spending by consumers will continue to be put under pressure.
A small, but growing number of television viewers will abandon cable and satellite television. They will replace it with broadband internet for major content, and with broadcast digital television (local HDTV) for breaking news and sports. This will be particularly apparent among the population without children. Smaller and rural markets may not follow, as explained below.
The failure of at least one debt-burdened media conglomerate may occur, as advertising revenue declines. Several radio conglomerates are candidates, as is Charter Cable or Nexstar Television. This may well force the end of many local radio/television stations. Smaller markets will be hit hardest. Sinclair Media may find itself on the hot seat for other reasons... |
Gotta grade myself, too. I Suck (tm)
OK, the surge bought some time, which was wasted. Still have to give me a fail (D+). I underestimated Petreaus' deals with the Sunnis. Iraq is now deteriorating, again.
Check on the limits of power, but not as spectacular as predicted. B-/C+. Notice the Russians started buzzing carriers?
Dollar decline continued, and indeed, some capital flight started, as traders started to wind down dollar positions as the mortgage mess got worse. A-
The recession DID start in mid-2007! And I got the predictions on denial right too. A+.
Got the housing market right. A.
Iran and Saudis do clash by proxy, but not as openly as I thought. The Iranians are playing a very smart game. C-. Basra occurred this year, not 2007.
The Silents are done. McCain remains my barrier to an A+, as he came back from the dead in 2007. A-.
I got the gimme of Bush putting things off on his successor. B.
Correct on non-impeachment (a near-gimmee). B+.
Got the false sense of security right, but the hurricane season fizzled. C-, at best.
Got the gimme of consumer spending right. B.
The DTV conversion *is* attracting people away from cable/sat, but not yet in large numbers. D+/C-.
No media bustout in 2007. Damn. F.
Overall, a C performance, at best. I challenge my Ignore list to attempt a similar exercise...
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