OK, next 1T (Author: First Turning) should be starting. Here's a look at the players:
The Pan Europeans from OGRE will exist in fact, and possibly in name as well. Their concerns will be Africa and the ME. The long border with Russia will be the scene of economic warfare, and occasional ethnic clashes of ethnic Slavs within Europe, covertly aided by the Russians. Refugees from Africa will be a major problem.
The Russians will have mastered the oligarchy of crime method of government. The strategic forces will be smaller, but first-rate. Except for subs to maintain a second strike, the navy will be greatly reduced. The only area of concern is the scramble for arctic resources. The Red Army (I can't resist) will be facing, in order, China, India, and the ME (the CIS will have ceded much area to the Islamics, in exchange for stability).
China will have had some kind of reckoning with food and employment. It will ape the Russian oligarchy. The Chinese will have put much of their strategic force at sea, avoiding the problems of regional feuding. The army will be smaller, but more capable. A takedown of North Korea may happen. Taiwan may be assimilated, much like Hong Kong, after the economically forced withdrawal of the US from the Western Pacific. The Chinese air force will be large, and quite robust at operating in austere conditions. The Chinese will be facing the Japanese to the east, Russia to the west, and India to the south.
Japan will re-develop it's military. The result will be a sort of Super-Israel, particularly at sea, and in the air. It will not be expansionist. It will have dominant economic power. It will also have nukes (at sea). South Korea will be a client state, as possibly will the PI. Taiwan/Formosa will be the main sticking point with the Chinese. Japanese power will halt Chinese expansion at the current DMZ in Korea.
India will continue to grow, but population growth will slow as economic gains take hold. A home-grown technology base, combined with nukes, will hold off China. The main problem will be with the ME mess (with African refugees thrown in). Most world observers believe this to be the next flashpoint.
A New Diaspora from Israel will begin, as the smart ones get out, while they still can. The ME and Africa will be going to hell at the same time. The religious fundamentalists from the US will try to fund some filibustering, but will find themselves quite outmatched by all players. The now-secular US will be accepting refugees from Israel, and trying to deport televangelists to Israel...
Brazil will dominate the southern hemisphere. A benevolent criminal oligarchy will control a navy, and a small strategic nuclear force. Much economic development will take place in South America, relieving many pressures. The main problems will be in damage control to the ecosphere, followed by African refugees and the remnants of American Exceptionalism. Regional squabbles will also take place, as will the Portuguese/Spanish divide. The worst will be in Central America, particularly Mexico's horrendous 4T aftermath.
The US will retain some minor outposts, after the Second Great Slowdown, as well as ANZUS and some ties to the Europeans. While there will be much public laughter, NOBODY wants to test the US's fury. The USN/USMC and USAF will still be the premiere fighting forces on the planet. They will have the cream of the population to choose from. The Army will have been much reduced, punished for it's failures. The US Strategic Command will have further extended it's reach into space, and the strategic triad will have been modernized and improved. The US will still be capable of killing every living thing on the surface of the planet, and no one wishes to provoke the ruling Millennial Generation into a Day Of Infamy. The rising Homeland Generation will seek prosperity, not conflict.
The Pan Europeans from OGRE will exist in fact, and possibly in name as well. Their concerns will be Africa and the ME. The long border with Russia will be the scene of economic warfare, and occasional ethnic clashes of ethnic Slavs within Europe, covertly aided by the Russians. Refugees from Africa will be a major problem.
The Russians will have mastered the oligarchy of crime method of government. The strategic forces will be smaller, but first-rate. Except for subs to maintain a second strike, the navy will be greatly reduced. The only area of concern is the scramble for arctic resources. The Red Army (I can't resist) will be facing, in order, China, India, and the ME (the CIS will have ceded much area to the Islamics, in exchange for stability).
China will have had some kind of reckoning with food and employment. It will ape the Russian oligarchy. The Chinese will have put much of their strategic force at sea, avoiding the problems of regional feuding. The army will be smaller, but more capable. A takedown of North Korea may happen. Taiwan may be assimilated, much like Hong Kong, after the economically forced withdrawal of the US from the Western Pacific. The Chinese air force will be large, and quite robust at operating in austere conditions. The Chinese will be facing the Japanese to the east, Russia to the west, and India to the south.
Japan will re-develop it's military. The result will be a sort of Super-Israel, particularly at sea, and in the air. It will not be expansionist. It will have dominant economic power. It will also have nukes (at sea). South Korea will be a client state, as possibly will the PI. Taiwan/Formosa will be the main sticking point with the Chinese. Japanese power will halt Chinese expansion at the current DMZ in Korea.
India will continue to grow, but population growth will slow as economic gains take hold. A home-grown technology base, combined with nukes, will hold off China. The main problem will be with the ME mess (with African refugees thrown in). Most world observers believe this to be the next flashpoint.
A New Diaspora from Israel will begin, as the smart ones get out, while they still can. The ME and Africa will be going to hell at the same time. The religious fundamentalists from the US will try to fund some filibustering, but will find themselves quite outmatched by all players. The now-secular US will be accepting refugees from Israel, and trying to deport televangelists to Israel...
Brazil will dominate the southern hemisphere. A benevolent criminal oligarchy will control a navy, and a small strategic nuclear force. Much economic development will take place in South America, relieving many pressures. The main problems will be in damage control to the ecosphere, followed by African refugees and the remnants of American Exceptionalism. Regional squabbles will also take place, as will the Portuguese/Spanish divide. The worst will be in Central America, particularly Mexico's horrendous 4T aftermath.
The US will retain some minor outposts, after the Second Great Slowdown, as well as ANZUS and some ties to the Europeans. While there will be much public laughter, NOBODY wants to test the US's fury. The USN/USMC and USAF will still be the premiere fighting forces on the planet. They will have the cream of the population to choose from. The Army will have been much reduced, punished for it's failures. The US Strategic Command will have further extended it's reach into space, and the strategic triad will have been modernized and improved. The US will still be capable of killing every living thing on the surface of the planet, and no one wishes to provoke the ruling Millennial Generation into a Day Of Infamy. The rising Homeland Generation will seek prosperity, not conflict.
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