After The Smoke Clears- The Next America

This is a speculation on what might be the condition of the continental US, post 2050-60. I'll have been dead for at least a generation by then.

Assumptions:

Borderer/Scots-Irish culture remains the deciding factor in American politics.

Natural resources will be even more precious, and shorter in supply. Energy is easier to obtain than petroleum, or more tellingly, water. Food depends on all three.

The US will be forced willy-nilly back to the Northern and Western Hemispheres, with perhaps Japan and the English speaking countries as exceptions. Economics, and more effective enemies will force this.

This cycle will follow the pattern of the Civil War, with much less bloodshed.

Currently, the US is geographically purple, with large urban centers surrounded by large rural zones. This year, migration to the Sun Belt effectively stopped- a portent. The South and West are very energy intensive places to live, and dominated by Borderer culture. The West knows all too well about the coming water war. Note what happened in Texas this year with the drought.

When the curtain raises, there may, or may not be a "United States" as an official government. The country will have, de facto, split into four regions. State boundaries may, or may not be retained (see "How the States Got Thier Shapes"). The Rio Grande, and Red/Arkansas Rivers, along with the Ohio and Missouri rivers may well be the new borders for many of the new regions. Water is key. Access to the sea is also key.

The first "American"region, loosely, is Alaska, Hawaii, and the Pacific Coast north of, say Oxnard, and mostly west of the Sierras and Cascades. This region depends on trade with Asia, natural resources, and ample fresh water. BC, and Alberta may effectively join them. LA and San Diego become effectively part of the Mexamerica complex that forms from the end of Mexico's Civil War. Mexamerica divides the Pacific region from the second "American" region- The Old West. This area is bounded by the Rio Grande to Santa Fe, and then irregularly northwestwards towards Montana and Idaho. It halts on the eastern and northern sides by the TX/LA border, and the Missouri river. Water is worth more than human life, as are extractable resources. A plutocracy rules over a very restive, thirsty, and desperate population.

The third region is The South. It shares the shape of the Old Confederacy closely. The real border is where air conditioning is needed for survival. Economically and morally humbled by history, the South has reverted into the Celtic Wars written large. The Borderers know that they are the guilty parties, but, like Reconstruction, will never admit it.

No responsible party pretends that this region is more than a banana republic. Contracts are hard to enforce, and the population is poor, tribal and hostile to any outside influence. There is a constant outflow of refugees fleeing the South. Florida has trade ties to the outside world (and it's own weird culture), and there is some industry, plus the mouth of the Mississippi River for trade. The region is energy intensive, and subject to natural disasters on a regular basis. Only the coasts are relatively safe, for tourism, and trade.

The last region is the North. It has finally divorced it's alcoholic, abusive spouse. It is attending a Twelve Step Program. The North is poorer than the Old Golden Age America, but better adjusted and healthier. It has close ties to Canada (sans Quebec), and the other Anglo countries. There is more than enough water. The North retained the nukes, and is still a major air, space, and naval power. (The North rents Florida's Space Coast, much to the chagrin of the South) The standard of living is below the UK, EU, and Canada, but far superior to the South and Old West. Shorter distances, large amounts of hydro and nuclear power, and the restoration of the northern tier states agriculture system without oil have made the North self supporting. Trade with Africa and Europe is also strong. cheap electric heating makes winter barely bearable.

It is as if the North had given up on the South in 1865. Recovery from the destructive relationship more than makes up for the loss of world prestige. The rest of the world has it's own problems. The destruction of Israel merely resulted in an exodus of it's best citizens to the US, UK, and EU. The Middle East is in constant war. China, Russia, and India are fighting out "The Great Game". The Brits get to mock all of them with Kipling quotes. Japan has long since gone nuclear, and is actively trying to get into space, and away from China.

It's a great era to relax in front of the TV, drink cheap beer, and watch the Cardinals. All it took was forty years of sheer hell...