Banks, and Generations

Here are a number of articles about banks and debt:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123399703

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/04/news/companies/banks_commercial_real_estate/index.htm?hpt=Sbin

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/03/news/economy/credit_vs_mortgage/index.htm?hpt=Sbin

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/03/real_estate/foreclosure_deficiency_judgement/index.htm?postversion=2010020315

The summation is that if the banks recognize their losses, something worse than the Bank Holiday of 1933 will result.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Banking_Act

If that would occur, it would be the Second Great Depression, for real. No politician, of any party, wants this- much less the bankers who will lose their jobs, too. Millions of businesses would lose access to credit, and massive layoffs would occur.

No wonder the Administration has not taken more aggressive action with the financial industry. It does not want to bee seen as the trigger for the final melt down.

Which will occur, anyway. Generationally, you can be certain that a certain number of borrowers will die, making the bank's losses real. Additionally, the stigma against default may be weakening. If the maximum that your pay can be garnished is 25%, and your payments are 40% of your income, the economic logic is obvious. If paying your car payments and unsecured creditors is more important on a day-to-day basis, why not save 15% of your income?

What this will do to a generation's values is critical.

A Federal Land Bank might result. This might be the equivalent of the Homestead act. Only new, and unencumbered, financial institutions might emerge from the mushroom cloud. Credit unions look promising. A return of "depression values" against debt may result.

What effect this would have on the US dollar will be left as an exercise for the student. The effects on American Exceptionalism, and the world balance of power (the fall of the American Empire) are quite obvious.

The banks cannot beat the odds forever.